I originally started writing this post in 2021, now in 2025 this information is more relevant. In the past, President Trump has suggested buying Greenland. Today in 2025, President Trump has made statements that Greenland should be part of the United States, and not removed the possibility of using military or economic force to accomplish the joining of Greenland and the United States. While in Russia media personalities have suggested Russia take over Greenland.
In 2021, I saw Canada’s renewed interest in the artic. The artic provides new source of resources, energy, and shipping lanes. While opening up new opportunities it also creates new threats. Canada in 2021 monitored Russian submarines constantly patrolling the artic.
In 2021, I believed the path forward was for the United States, Canada, Greenland, and Iceland to strengthen cooperation in the artic. I saw that NATO, being an existing organization could help foster this new relationship in the artic. These countries could help support each other, and decide to exclude threatens to the artic region such as Russia. This new shipping lane could also be a powerful negotiation tool, to ensure countries follow international rules.
Climate change is Chaos.
“In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity”
― Sun-Tzu
Climate change will be the challenge of this century. The 1900’s were a century with economic challenges. Now that we can produce as much as we want we are left with the realization of the cost of the production. The market externalities. This will change our political and social structure and already changed our natural environment. These social changes are fully realized we will have military conflicts. One reason for future military conflicts is natural resources. Climate change is changing the physical landscape and allowing new resources to be extracted, changing the political landscape. Climate change will affect every aspect of the human experience in unexpected ways.
A Story Frozen in the Ice
What do the films Captain America: The First Avenger, Ice Age: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs, and 1997’s Batman & Robin have in common? Characters were suspended in the ice. Humans we know that ice can freeze things in time, but wanted or unwanted when the ice melts we have to address what thawed out.
A warmer planet will melt more ice. This ice will allow humans to travel to hard to reach locations: the Arctic and Antarctic. New resources and shipping lanes will open up. These new resources and shipping lanes will be an interest to countries around the world. The two countries that will benefit the most are Canada and Denmark. Denmark controls Greenland, the world’s largest island or world’s most excluded continent. The United States and the Russian Federation will also benefit and take a major interest in the Arctic region. Canada is already concerned about Russian submarines encroaching on Canada’s territory.
How the Arctic Is Changing with Climate Change — A Closer Look at Resources, Shipping Lanes, and NATO’s Strategic Interests
Climate change is rapidly transforming the Arctic, melting ice at unprecedented rates and opening this once remote region to new possibilities—and new risks. As shipping lanes emerge and untapped resources become accessible, nations around the world are turning their attention northward. For NATO, these changes bring both opportunities and challenges, prompting a renewed focus on the Arctic’s strategic significance. Below, we explore the factors driving this shift, the resources at stake, and why NATO is positioning itself for an evolving Arctic future.
The Arctic’s Warming Landscape
Over the past few decades, rising global temperatures have led to the thinning and retreat of Arctic sea ice, exposing new land and waterways. Scientists predict that during summer months in the not-too-distant future, we may see an almost ice-free Arctic Ocean. This phenomenon has profound implications for:
- Ecological Balance: Habitat loss for species like polar bears, walruses, and seals, as well as changes in fish migration patterns.
- Human Activity: Increased potential for resource extraction, commercial fishing, and maritime trade through new shipping routes.
These changes are happening faster than many researchers anticipated, which is causing policymakers—and organizations like NATO—to develop strategies that address both the immediate and long-term consequences in the High North.
NATO’s Strategic Interests in the Arctic
Geopolitical Concerns
- Russian Military Activity
Russia has significantly increased its Arctic presence in recent years. Reactivating Soviet-era bases, conducting large-scale military exercises, and deploying cutting-edge weaponry, such as hypersonic missiles, has raised alarm among NATO member states. The alliance closely monitors these developments to maintain regional stability and address potential threats to member nations. - China’s Arctic Ambitions
Though not an Arctic state, China has declared itself a “near-Arctic state” and has been expanding its economic and scientific footprint in the region. Its increasing investments in infrastructure and research stations, coupled with a growing commercial shipping presence, raise questions about China’s long-term intentions and broader strategic goals. - Allied Defense Coordination
With five NATO members—Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and the United States—bordering or operating in the Arctic, joint defense strategies are essential. NATO places a high priority on collective security, ensuring that any threat to an individual member’s Arctic territory receives a coordinated and unified response.
Strategic Objectives
- Maintaining Freedom of Navigation
As Arctic ice recedes, new shipping routes are emerging, offering faster connections between Europe, Asia, and North America. NATO supports keeping these routes open under international law (particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea), ensuring safe passage for commercial vessels and preventing any single nation from monopolizing the waterways. - Surveillance and Monitoring
Increased military and economic activities demand robust surveillance. NATO members invest in advanced radar systems, drones, and satellites to track movements—be they naval exercises, commercial shipping, or the extraction of resources. Staying informed about developments is key to preempting conflicts and safeguarding alliance interests. - Protecting Critical Infrastructure
The Arctic’s significance extends beyond its waters. Energy facilities, undersea cables, and other infrastructure are vital to the global economy and communication networks. NATO works to shield these assets from potential cyber and physical threats, emphasizing resilience and rapid response capabilities.
Military Presence and Exercises
To ensure operational readiness in extreme cold environments, NATO organizes joint military exercises such as Cold Response and Arctic Challenge. These drills:
- Train troops to withstand Arctic conditions.
- Test cold-weather equipment and logistics.
- Demonstrate the alliance’s unity and capability to project power in remote, challenging regions.
New Resources in the Arctic with Climate Change
As ice recedes, vast reserves of oil, gas, minerals, and even fish stocks become more accessible. These resources offer potential economic windfalls but also stoke international competition.
Oil and Gas
Estimates suggest the Arctic holds around 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30% of undiscovered natural gas. While extraction is expensive and technically complex, improvements in technology and diminishing ice barriers make it increasingly feasible. Russia, the United States, and Norway are particularly interested in expanding Arctic drilling within their respective Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs).
Minerals and Rare Earth Elements (REEs)
Beyond fossil fuels, the Arctic is home to significant mineral deposits, including nickel, copper, platinum, and rare earth elements (REEs). These REEs are especially valuable for modern technology and defense industries. Greenland has drawn global attention for its sizable, untapped REE deposits, which are integral to green energy solutions, batteries, and electronics manufacturing.
Fisheries
Melting ice also opens new fishing grounds as species like Arctic cod and mackerel migrate northward. This shift brings both opportunity and responsibility; sustainable management is crucial to avoid overexploitation. Nations and industry stakeholders must strike a balance between harvesting these resources for economic gain and preserving marine ecosystems for future generations.
Freshwater Resources
The Arctic stores immense quantities of freshwater in its glaciers and permafrost. As global demand for freshwater rises, particularly in water-scarce regions, this resource could become another focal point for commercial and geopolitical interest.
New Shipping Lanes in the Arctic Due to Climate Change
One of the most immediate consequences of receding sea ice is the emergence of new Arctic shipping routes. These passages reduce travel distances between major global markets, cutting fuel costs and transit times—but they also pose legal, environmental, and security challenges.
Northern Sea Route (NSR)
- Runs along Russia’s Arctic coast from the Kara Sea to the Bering Strait.
- Cuts shipping time between Europe and Asia by up to 40% compared to the Suez Canal.
- Russia is investing heavily in icebreaker fleets and port infrastructure to dominate this route, making it central to its Arctic strategy.
Northwest Passage (NWP)
- Crosses through Canada’s Arctic Archipelago, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
- Offers significant time savings for ships traveling between eastern North America and Asia.
- Canada claims sovereignty, while other nations (including the U.S.) assert it is an international strait, fueling diplomatic debates.
Transpolar Sea Route (TSR)
- Projected to become viable by mid-century if ice continues to retreat.
- Would offer the shortest path between Europe and Asia, passing directly over the North Pole.
- Presents unique challenges, including extreme cold, unpredictable ice conditions, and a lack of infrastructure and emergency support.
Environmental and Geopolitical Concerns
- Environmental Risks: Greater shipping traffic heightens the risk of oil spills, pollution, and disturbances to marine ecosystems that are already under stress.
- Territorial Disputes: As these routes open, boundary lines in areas like the Beaufort Sea (between the U.S. and Canada) and the Lomonosov Ridge (claimed by Russia, Denmark, and Canada) could fuel tensions and complicate international relations.
Conclusion
The Arctic is at the forefront of climate change’s sweeping impacts—a place where global warming, geopolitical competition, and international commerce intersect. Melting ice is unlocking access to valuable resources and new shipping routes, drawing the attention of nations eager to exploit these emerging opportunities. For NATO, these developments underscore the region’s importance to alliance security, driving investments in surveillance, defense coordination, and collective readiness.
At the same time, the Arctic’s fragile environment and cultural heritage demand careful stewardship. Striking a balance between resource extraction, shipping, and ecological protection is critical to ensuring the region’s long-term viability. As climate change continues to reshape the Arctic’s landscape, its role in global trade, resource supply, and strategic planning will only grow—making cooperation, responsible governance, and sustained scientific research more important than ever.
