In 2017, I traveled the world, including in Asia. I believe the next world war would start in Asia. I also had ideas on how to prevent this war in Asia.
Back then, the main idea I had was to create strong trade deals. China was implementing it’s cabbage strategy, where it would take islands or build islands and start increasing the defenses of these islands in the South China Sea (the name of the sea, not acknowledging the sea is owned by China). These islands would create layers like layers in a cabbage.
My idea was the best way to beat a cabbage is with a silk worm, trade. The silk road was a famous trading route starting in ancient China and ending in Europe. Silk is a fiber created by moths when they transform from a larva, worm looking creature into a cocoon and then into an adult flying moth.
I saw that if the South China sea was a place of commerce instead of war, and that commerce is more beneficial to war, that commerce would win over war. My idea would have each country have one resource product (iron ore, timber, frozen fish, etc) and one high processed item (cell phones, laptop computers, etc) that would be traded to all members of the group for zero tariff. Vietnam trades cell phones and oil to the Philippines, the Philippines trades pineapples and industrial boilers to Vietnam. This would cause countries to specialize in these two items, making it better for everyone that trades with them, and increases the reliance on everyone who cooperates (basics of Adam Smith). All countries in the group would agree that the South China sea has freedom of navigation for trade, and any country that disagrees would not be able to be part of this lucrative trade group.
Today in 2025, I see the mistakes in this thinking. This silk worm plan to counter act the cabbage strategy relies on rational actors that believe in cooperation. ‘Why would I trade with you if I can take it instead?’
A fact that struck me is that countries that trade don’t go to war. But I failed to realize that they might be trading soo much because they aren’t at war. The correlation between trade and peace. I believed it was a causation of trade leading to peace, not peace leading to trade.
